during that time period what might be useful is to think about if this is the demand for new homes what is the real -- i'm sorry the supply of new homes what is the demand for it how many new homes do we really need and nor to get a sense for that i look at this data series from the united states census bureau and this is house of information and if you are young couple getting a first house or an individual who's you know, living in school and getling their first detriment ask a forms the horizontal line going through there is the average from 1961 to 2,000 and leaves out the last deck a i did ask so it says how many newer homes do we really need here and it's one and a quarter million and so may be between one and a quart million and one and-a-half million is where we aught to be and so now i'm going to backup and go to the previous slide and

if this was penciled in here it would be a horizontal line through this graph and we would find that we were building way too much at the height of the bubble and so where are we going from here we are going back to one and a quarter or one and-a-half million or so overt course of next five years and considering we have been at 600,000 or so, if we go to one .2 million that is a double in the pace of reconstruction activity the and twice as many framers roofers and home inspector and is then that has a booying fantastic on the overall economy having said that i'm not living with my head in the sand here i recognize that a lot of markets are still suffering a little bit and this graph show you's you the change of value in home price from their local market peak to where they are at present the case sowler composite and san francisco is halfway through the pack there

down to about 33% and so whole values are still off from where they were before but if you look at where we are from the low point until where we are today, san francisco is looking a little bit better and oakland is not a member city and they randomly take 20 cities that are plead broadly representative of the housing market and san francisco is the second line on here and posted as one of the naysest paces of recovery and so we get some help from residential construction and we also get help from securelier spending this is what i'm showing here and this is the debt service ratio and it's an interesting concept if says if you add up my mortgage payment and car payment and any other kind of consumer debt that i carey and how much of that is a% of personal disposable income and where we are at relative total whereas 30 years that service ratio is about as low as it's been during anytime at that

period and is there any reason that the fed tries to lower interest raid and rate and drive the cost of housing and if you look at the graph on the left hand side the blue portion is the household real estate value and not surprisingly it's down and hasn't really come back much in the last couple of ears and the rusty color on top is the financial assets and we have retraced a lot of the lost rounds in the recession people's 401 k's have come back and so in 2013, we are probably back to pre-recession level of household wealth respondent right-hand side there, you see the retail fails and personal number are hanging in there and that aught to support a halfway decedent growth in consumer spending and that is what this is showing

here may be two% growth in securelier spendings and so you get some help from construction sector and consumer spend something and what about businesses what role do they play in this, gdp growth in the future to the expend it has and this is a look at cash on hand and the point point is that businesses are swim swimming in cash but not spending it. and this is a look at business spendings and what you find is that in the early part of this recovery when consumers were you know, hiding under their beds and you know worried about the recession it was businesses that were really spending rather aggressively they had just laid off 8 million people and looking for ways to become more productive through the implementation of the better use of it can technology and capital investment and this period right after the recession, businesses were spending a lot and sort-of loss a lot of mommentum here and not completely convinced that

they have lots the way and they are not going into hiding either. this line the biggest take away looking at this graph may be legible from where you are sittings and i'll try do what i can to call out the lints that most people care about g d p is two% it's a little weaker than that in the opt year because you get a slower start because of the tax that weighs on consumer spending in the first couple of quarters inflation is more or less in line with the fed's target rate of roughly two% and i i think we do a farrell decedent job with our forecast and you can tabling me into talking about upside or down side risk here with you there is one line federal funds target rate and i feel confidant about our forecast for that line because the federal reserve is told that is where they are going to keep the short term interest rates between now and

2014 and if you are looking at the ten year rate and wondering when can i expect to put money in a cd or short-term savings account and expect a normal rate of return, unfortunately probably not at anytime in our 44 cast period and if you look at the treasury it closed at one 99 and two% for the last couple of most and is for the next two years it doesn't get above 2.6% and so what we are really saying there is if you look at united states treasuries right now the two biggest buyer of threshys are the united states reserve and they are going to continue to buy treasuries to continue to drive down interest raids and the other major buyers are foreign central bank and is ten year ago at the time if i had i

was a foreign central bank i would have bought japanese den nominated bonds and britishic pound sterling and united states treasure res is that the case today? central bangs don't want to touch anything in euros and japan is slipping into another recession united kingdom never got out of it's last recession and now it's getting into it's next recession we main feel good about our gdp growth but we are doing better than the other advanced economies of the world and there is a johnny cash song that says the beer i had for break fast was not bad and so i had one more for desert and i full bled through my closet and found my cleanest dirty shirts and so, united states foreign bonds are the cleanest dirty shirts down and as marry mentioned in the introduction

the weekly and monthly ox comment tare we have printed versions of our commentary on a both outside and there is a link there that you can sign up to receive complimentary sub contribution to that for being here today. to sum everything up, i guess what i would say here is, we are growing at below our potential you know, the commie cook growing at a faster clip if we can get the budget problems out of our way but it's not as though we are in the risk of slipping back into the a double dip recession and we are finally at a point here where this two% may noting what everybody wants but it's a better alternative and advanced to the other economies the world and i would love it see congress cop out torl to embrace the simple simp son bowel's proposal and balance the budget in ten years but i think we have a better chance of seeing that

happen and you know, in the many time you know, sometimes in the wake of the election we stopped paying attention to some of the poles and the congressional pole rating it's a drop from 14% to nine. not 9% it's actually nine people in the country that think that congress is doing a good job right now. but with that, i thank you all very much for having me today. (applause) . >> thank you tim and thank you wells fargo bank for providing tim and now, we are going to invite our mayors to the stage and we are going to be able to hear about their requirement prierts and outlook and envision and is each mayor will get some time on the podium and then other manage editor will be leading a k q and a with them

and if there are questions that you would like to ask him hold your hands up and either now or during the presentation and we will get to as many as we can and since fraction is the host city, mayor lee is gracious enough to allow mayor khan to go first please welcome dan angle who's president of golden gate university to introduce mayor khan (applause) good morning. i noticed that governor rick pairy was mentioned articlier and i think i may send him a question and tell him why i came here ten year ago and there is some good news in recent california he picked out the top three firms he was after and called a joint meeting of the legislature and he did pretty well till he got

to the third one he could not remember who it is of golden gate university is pleased once again to be a respond to cor of this annual event we are privileged to learn of the mayor's visions for the city and is after 12 years of educating professionals in the greater san francisco bay area and around the world we at g g u firmly believe that an educated workforce is the best way to bring that vision forward. we applaud mayor khan's efforts to workforce development opportunity opportunities for the cities and we hope to work with her to create additional opportunity we thank the mayor for her continued services in the city of oakland and the bay area now before you meet her there is going to be a short video but we want you to

welcome may khan. thank you. oakland has a rich hair damage it's talented and there is a few reason why artistss are gravi at a timing to oakland one it has a long history of art for many reasons certainly there is a huge rich tradition here it's a perfect artistic hub it's a place that if i were back in a band i would seriously consider located locketting my place here you can grow your audience there is a lot of new businesses sprod sprouting you mean and new cafe and is stews. and if i brought someone to oakland the highlight of the trip they would have to see pandoras office and is the neighborhood they over look i have lived in the neighborhood for over a decade now and how they have evolved and

transformed. sidewalks are full and at night now there are people all over and for our employees, that is place where they spend a lot of time there is a lot of thing for them do now and socially groups are always going out and about and pandora is an artistic and creative enterprise fundamentally and that is a business that you want to be in a like minded community. oakland to know it to love it. (applause) . . >> good morning. [inaudible/incomprehensible] the chain we celebrate for weeks and weeks on happy valentines day. i also like to know who i'm talking to so how many of you have been to the east bank? okay pretty good about a third that is about the same in oakland about a third in san

francisco and how many of you have visited -- on the east bay yeah, another about a third. so that is actually one of the points that i'll be making today basically, the two things i want you to walk out remembering today is that oakland is on the rise and it's growing mommentum and at this point in history, it's the rural city of business opportunities and i'm going go over just a few of those points. mary asked us to pick an hour and i love mary and she is this charge of the local papers and trends and i'm sure most of you do. oakland is a city that is definitely on the rise and has stabilizessed a really strong financial base. probably in the strongest position that we have been in in a decade, and that

is due to my new management leadership team and i want to give a shout out to santa ana city mr. and pat johnson who's the assistant to the managerial financeses and i'm going to intros them a little later. we have basically and you nerve can tell because of the surprises from the other government and is the feds and the elimination of redevelopment and et cetera but we have got an 80 million-dollar revival in five years and in case we have to ref development -- all of our economic indicators are up and they are above rejection and up $11 million above our projection and that is every revenue and income source and standard business source and is tour

restaurant tax and is most of the rest of the city has holt new restaurants and? jack land and still a heart in the center of the bay area [name?] who was just one of the chef's award warded of the year and oakland is a city boomings and we are tryinged and part of ourselves and we have had amazing growth and we are going to move more towards towards it's business second thoors you care about we have -- taken $11 million and invested it in our town and we have even with the loss of economic development we have a new economic development office for the people -- (applause) and he is about to announce and it will not be today but he is

about to announce a new economic development director that i think some of you will know and really think will help us reach that stage. -- 12%, property tax transfer trend is doing very very well, we have created 5,000 jobs, unemployment is down about four%. so what we are saying is that the city has really strong standard growth so where are the opportunities. well we have already had a shout out about healthcare and we have got i know highland hospitals here and kaiser is here is children's hospital is about to with uc s f and that is an important trend because as we grow as a region if we no longer -- although we will have to debate about

certain teams it's something that is not necessarily drab for oakland and oakland is not something that should necessarily be bad for san francisco because in the rest of the world they call us the golden triangle and san francisco is a financial strength with oakland at the -- which, is they see us as a region and they come to look at investing in our area, they pretty much make a round and they don't just go to oakland they look at us and see us as a region. so healthcare, main strength of the kaiser is [inaudible/incomprehensible] to be an ensator in healthcare and that is one of the characteristic traits in oakland and we have had this year, after a decade, finally you launched

the oakland -- in the worth of oakland by a point over there and our interim director debra allen is here all right -- and that is a major economic engine for the whole region how many you have are involved in transportation lodgestics? not that many here, okay but that is if you look, into commercial real estate and they use economic engine for the entire region and so i look at the jobs that are for the worth port oakland which, is the first port that met the call to export more than we imported and that, that, is very important and that the expansion of the army base after ten years and my deputy there on swan son, over here for played a major role in getting

that conversion for the federal government and the chief of staff -- and so, this is an area where, we made a decision that -- industrial jobs and the calm of the president, to make sure that we have a balanced economy, we sure hope we get one of those 15 industrial charity and is training opportunities in the country. because, they are paying college jobs -- as a solution and for some -- to be quite honestly say it's part of my evolve strategy to raise the city to 50% of the jobs to open residency and the community college to make sure that happens. as development happens some of the biggest fonts and largest footprints in the area are happening in

oakland you have heard of -- city where the negotiationss are -- but it's more than the spokes team it's the airport connector that is about to be finished is a real opportunity to develop a multimillion project that you can measure and opportunity and housing and detail. and there are no traditional shopping malls in oakland and there could be one anywhere and you shall you're looking at the 600 ache remember customers and then the whole industrial park between the park to the airport and scwh has just gotten several grant for the developing e i r for the whole area and that was one of the thing that i wanted to repeat is that oakland has been hit by the recession in the past and the plans for the whole renalle block for development and the broader quoter quarter where it's interesting and in turn a traditional and -- retail and even looking at the little

spot in the port of oakland that might might be home to oakland or another team or mainly total and other facilities right on the estuary probably in the bay area. the other area where we see obvious growth is in our restaurant industry and so last year in the new york times, as -- london we are very proud and i know those are isn't that correcty comments and not really these are my friends in san francisco but if you have been to if you have not been to some of the hot new restaurant, they are just a block away, i'll buy you a particular i can get to dictionarily's -- if i take the train in 15 minutes. and today i spend 45 minutes on the boat but you know-bridge and in terms

of the very very big transit of economic [inaudible/incomprehensible] we have talked about transportation and we have talked about the growth in housing, and some of our hot new sites oakland city is a city that has five -- and one of them is in the era of development, in the city, we plan mainly developments around each of those -- it's taking off right now as under construction, we are planning out chlic seem and the chlic seem city, we are hopeful that we will eventually get through the development on the last -- san francisco. and -- south. but in terms of the issues of real estate, in august, oakland had the fastest

turn around of residential construction in the country -- [inaudible/incomprehensible] average our rental market now ranks fourth in the nation for both and that is still not 70% of san francisco and so definitely there is a lot of investment there and fortunately, irents are on the way up and the commercial industrial, rental and down to four% vacancy. the vague 83cy is very similar and so we are seeing people beginning to pull the 2,000 condo and -- units that we had approved before the recession pulled and to start those up and so in 2,000, howing is ready to go and we have major beginning of interest in commercial space on the board way quarter and height limits.

so we are i was saying looking at some buildings in shanghai hong kong and thinking i wonder how they will sit on broadway and meanwhile, we continue to be one of the greatest cities and over 100 miles of bike lanes and i have a little competition on that i'm ahead of him thousand and we are one of the city that is have changed the way that -- knob snub and we are proud that what we have been able do that and we are one of the most liveable laces in the world, oakland has better climate, but we are an amazing place to live and an amazing place for creativity, so, we have pandora and the little cluster of software companies around had a and we have a very nays-growing industry and many of the flackets you see are dhoastled

in oakland, and new or gangs food products under the -- cost potential now are being manufactured in oakland and so we have what i think is a really balanced, balanced economy. so, what we are not talking about crime but, i just -- [inaudible] approximate was not part of the agenda but what are some of the challenges and part of the challenges is more i think the perceptual reality of crime and this is a year of where crime went up everywhere in san francisco and san jose and quite frankly and i'm being very honestly about this because of what the president said the other night we are for the not going to end -- unless we get the universal background check on gunses because california and oakland have some of the strongest laws in the country but the guns come in across

nevada evidence and we need all of your help to support the president on this. because if you care about the violence in america cities, we have to have -- it's a no-brainer if it's legal for a teenager to have a machine begun in the streets of urban america and that is leading to this higher murder rate across the country it makes a difference. so, if you need to we need you to help support the president on that and you can do that and my organization is to -- to help the obama administration we can bring down violate crime permanently if we also refer to the issues of giving opportunity to young people and hope. and oakland more than other cities we have more people that have been left out of the america dream and as president obama said the other bay; day, we all have to rise as

americans we have this amazing -- in the next year and the pledge i make for my nun i couldn't think people is that we will rise together and so we have summer jobs and internship that we can take here in san francisco for young people in the parts of oakland and young african american that are still dropping out before they finish high school and i think if they get a job or an intern ship in the summer they are less likely to drop out and so that is what i'm ep ending with and oakland is a city of hope that we need help and that is what we need do is support the american dream by making sure that everybody in the city rises and so thank you very much and we look forward -- [inaudible/incomprehensible] my admiration and love

and understanding of what the culture is experience i have been here for 50 years, our 50 is one of the greatest cities to ever rise up and stand up if you meet people from oakland, they are some of the warmest people they carry hope, they use fire they -- oakland is a hub of creativity we are who we are we are political, we are artsy, we are musicians for the entrepreneur oakland is the fantastic place to be your base you can relax absorb the culture and create. and you can look for us to be a technology hub going forward and we have never been followers. and have always been leaders. it's a very unique place and a great place to live. i relax by driving